2010 Gadget Predictions
As 2009 winds to a close, I find myself wondering where we’ll be focusing our attention this time next year. So, here are a few prognostications.
Cell phones
iPhones will still be “the” phone to have, but there will be a large number of Android phones sold of varying types. The app space will also still belong to Apple, with Android growing exponentially. This should be the year that the exclusivity agreement between Apple and AT&T finally goes away, which will help keep a stranglehold on growth for Steve Jobs and company for at least two more years. Some predictions to look for in phones for next year:
5 megapixel cameras become the standard in high-end smartphones
Video conferencing becomes more popular via apps – native support may still be another year away
4G networks start to gain ground with a handful of phones able to utilize them
Some phones will start to include 802.11n WiFi chips
Palm will report declining quarterly sales, leading to the beginning of the end (again)
Movies/TV Shows/DVRs
The three companies that appear to be moving in the right direction are Netflix, Redbox and Hulu. Netflix gives you a decent (though far from impressive) number of movies to watch on demand. You can expect to see their software on just about every connected device moving forward, which will help their subscriber base. As their digital rental selection grows, so will the number of people who sign up.
Redbox, with it’s $1/night rentals will also continue to grow. They’re in litigation with the studios over how soon they can rent new releases, and if they can get that timeframe from 2 weeks down to immediately, they look to really boom over the next year. I don’t think they’ll bother with Blu Ray this year, but it should become an option over time. I also eventually forsee them with a digital distribution method as they’re slowly moving away from one-time rental stuff to creating accounts for renters. I would imagine they’ll have membership cards soon.
Hulu needs to only do a few more things before they become a major player in the digital content world. First, sign CBS up. That’ll cover all the major networks, and they can continue working on the cable ones over time. Next, finish Hulu Desktop. It’s a good application, but it’s not quite there yet. I use it regularly, but would use it more if a few small changes were made. Last, make the content available on the television. Either take the Netflix method and put their software on everything, or make it stream across the network somehow. I think the former will happen eventually, but I’m not quite sure 2010 is the year for it.
There should be an Apple TV update from a hardware perspective. The impending monthly fee for watching everything you want is on the horizon, but not yet ready.
Connected media devices such as the Western Digital HD box, Roku Player, and Popcorn Hour will pop up more and more, with expanding capabilities.
TiVo may be ready with a TiVo Series IV or whatever they want to call it sometime in 2010. The TiVo branded 802.11n WiFi adapter has already been spotted on the FCC’s web site, but I think that there is some functionality that they’re missing right now that they should be ready to release later in the year. More storage, built in WiFi, 4 tuners, and maybe even built-in SDV decryption. Tru2Way? Maybe.
Televisions
3D TV is already starting to grab headlines. I’ve not seen this technology in action yet, but while it’s a buzzword now, it’s going to take more than just this year for the cost and gimmick factor to wear down and it to become a must-have. Plasma TVs will continue to fade into obscurity, to the chagrin of picture quality purists. 120 Hz LCDs will become the “low end” by the end of the year with 240 Hz being the one everyone wants, and 480 Hz being the big money sets. Some manufacturers are installing various software gadgets on their sets, and those will continue until one of those features actually takes off. Netflix may be the easiest/most obvious. TVs that can grab network content with built in DVRs may also start to take off, eliminating the DVR/cable box/HTPC needs in some people’s homes. Hopefully a standard is developed for that so that different manufacturers can work with each other.
It was rumored last year, but I think Apple will release a real “Apple TV”. A 30″ or larger display with a built in Apple TV, possibly with DVR functionality. If they change their current television distribution model, that may not be necessary, but I think it’s coming.
Video Game Consoles
They’ll become even more connected, offering various television programming options. The Wii honeymoon is quite over, but I believe they’ll be the first to market with a new console. Project Natal and Sony’s motion controller will come to market. It’s a gimmick, but it’ll sell lots and lots of product, especially over the holidays. Rumors of next-gen consoles will start to heat up as well, but those are still several years off.
Tablet PCs
The new Tablet PC(s) will be thin, last several hours on a charge, have only 1-3 input options, have a highly modified OS, and be geared more towards the web and media consumption than editing Excel spreadsheets. The JooJoo, which appears to be the first one that will come to market will fail miserably. When Apple releases their tablet this year, it will do for the Tablet market (which currently does not exist) what the iPhone did for the mobile phone market. It will define it. I suspect they will gear it towards the same crowd that the Macbook Air was. Those with money to burn. For now, don’t expect to see your parents getting you an iTablet for your birthday, but as time goes on and competitors arise, the price point will come down. Expect to browse the web like you do on an iPhone, and to have video streamed to it via WiFi from a shared drive or possibly Apple’s subscription service. It will have an SSD for storage, though not a very big one, with probably 2 GB RAM, a custom processor designed by the chip company they bought, PA Semi, and cost between $800 and $1000 dollars. Don’t be surprised if this is the device they position for video conferencing/calls, it comes with a 4G chip option, and may be subsidized by one or more carriers. I would expect them to announce it in the first few months of the year, and release it in tandem with AT&T and Verizon’s LTE rollout.
Zune HD/iPod Touch
Spec bumps are probably all we’re looking at here. Microsoft needs to advertise more aggressively if they want to even stay afloat in this market. There will finally be a camera on the Touch, but don’t be surprised if it’s the same one the Nano got…crappy video only.
Cameras
More Flip-style video cameras from other manufacturers. 1080p on many more still cameras – it will be almost required by the end of the year. 12-15 megapixels will be the standard. (Editor’s Note – Consumers will continue to blindy buy into labels such as “HD”, “1080p”, and “Megapixels” with little understanding of the concepts as well as how little they actually relate to the quality of the devices and their output.)
PCs
The PC market seems to be falling slightly, but more manufacturers will try to come to market with something more “sexy” to jumpstart sales. The all-in-one will be a small market that Apple has cornered that others will try to nudge into. Expect the Core2Duo chip to be in much lower demand by the end of the year with the i3, i5, and i7 chips taking their place.
Laptops
Don’t expect much to change in this market other than the expansion of battery engineering as other companies look to match what Apple has done with their battery design and extended life. The Core2Duo lineup will also fade here as well, but probably not until the second half of the year or even further out. Perhaps better built-in webcams and more unibody offerings. More 13″ options and more ULV processors (which are technically Core2Duo).
Netbooks
Next gen Atom processors and ION chips will make netbooks a bit more viable to those of us who want to do something other than read blogs. More games as well as digital video consumption will finally be an option on these. I think that the sweet spot for these will be in the 11-12″ range as people quickly tire of the tiny 8-9″ screens and keyboards.
eBook Readers
There are a number of companies looking to cash in on this trend, I just don’t know how well the whole thing is going to take off. It looks solid for people in college (for textbooks) and people that read CONSTANTLY. Personally, I’m an audible customer. As far as advances in the tech, don’t look for anything mind blowing over the next year other than perhaps some concessions on formats so that everyone’s reader is looking for the same thing. But, it won’t be completely sorted out for a long time, if ever.
That hits most of the things consumers are or will be interested over the course of the next year. We’ll check back in 12 months and see how close I was.
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